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Foley by-election, 2046
A by-election was held for the Craftian House of Representatives seat of Foley on Saturday 20 October 2046. It was triggered by the resignation of sitting member Oliver Hen-Ji, leader of the Craftian Reform Party. He resigned from his seat on election night, thus voiding the election results and forcing a by-election to elect his successor. The by-election was narrowly won by Dan Mah for the Reform Party, in the closest result in decades in a seat held by the CRP for more than thirty years. Georgia Ball of the National United Party, Reform's closest rival in Foley, easily won the seat in the following federal election, and United has held it with a comfortable margin to this day. A total of 7 candidates nominated to contest the by-election. The Mojang Democratic Party declined to nominate a candidate. Seat overview On paper, Foley has always been a safe United seat, due to its demographical nature. Foley is heavily working class, covering a swathe of the most disadvantaged suburbs in Craftia. However, Hen-Ji, the hugely popular leader of the Reform Party, held the seat from 2013 to 2033 and from 2034 to 2046, sitting on margins of up to 25 percent, due to his personal popularity and anti-establishment populism appealing to the electorate's voters. The Reform Party struggled following Hen-Ji's resignation as leader in 2033, especially in electorates, and relied on party votes to remain in parliament. Hen-Ji returned as leader in 2044, to lead the party into the 2046 election. Although polls initially predicted a surge in popularity, support tapered off towards the end of the campaign and Reform underperformed on election night, although still securing a swing of 6.58% and winning 12 seats. Hen-Ji resigned as MP for Foley on election night, thus disclaiming the results for his seat and triggering the by-election. With Hen-Ji vowing to permanently retire from electoral politics, the Reform Party had lost its advantage of incumbency, despite having held the seat continuously since 2013. The seat was seen as being vulnerable to being taken by the United Party. Two-party-preferred estimates between United and the Conservatives or Liberals predicted a large swing. Opinion polls predicted a much closer result if Reform was the NUP's opponent in the TPP count. Results Mah narrowly retained the seat for Reform, on a TPP swing of 10.47% against the Reform Party. } | align="left"|United | align="left"|Georgia Ball | align="right"|29,246 | align="right"|41.82 | align="right"|+14.51 |- | | align="left"|Reform | align="left"|Dan Mah | align="right"|25,525 | align="right"|36.50 | align="right"|–20.73 |- | | align="left"|Liberal | align="left"|Scott Liu | align="right"|6,056 | align="right"|8.66 | align="right"|+1.93 |- | | align="left"|Independent | align="left"|Karen Anderson | align="right"|4,280 | align="right"|6.12 | align="right"|+6.12 |- | | align="left"|Conservative | align="left"|Darren Wright Smith | align="right"|3,140 | align="right"|4.49 | align="right"|–2.99 |- | | align="left"|Greens | align="left"|Ma Huasheng | align="right"|1,490 | align="right"|2.13 | align="right"|+1.58 |- | | align="left"|Independent | align="left"|Jono Suthers | align="right"|196 | align="right"|0.28 | align="right"|+0.28 |- ! colspan="3" align="right"|Total formal votes | align="right" style="background-color: #F2F2F2"|69,932 | align="right" style="background-color: #F2F2F2"|96.45 | align="right" style="background-color: #F2F2F2"|+3.29 |- ! colspan="3" align="right"|Informal votes | align="right" style="background-color: #F2F2F2"|2,576 | align="right" style="background-color: #F2F2F2"|3.55 | align="right" style="background-color: #F2F2F2"|–3.29 |- ! colspan="3" align="right"|Turnout | align="right" style="background-color: #F2F2F2"|72,508 | align="right" style="background-color: #F2F2F2"|80.19 | align="right" style="background-color: #F2F2F2"|–5.77 |- ! colspan="6" align="left"|Two-party-preferred result |- | | align="left"|Reform | align="left"|Dan Mah | align="right"|35,917 | align="right"|51.36 | align="right"|–10.47 |- | | align="left"|United | align="left"|Georgia Ball | align="right"|34,015 | align="right"|48.64 | align="right"|+10.47 |- | | colspan="2" align="left" style="background-color: #F2F2F2"|Reform hold ! align="right"|Swing | align="right" style="background-color: #F2F2F2"|–10.47 ! |}